First, the football program lost its marquee names. But now it's looking more and more like basketball is about to cause the Big East to crumble into oblivion. Do Cincinnati and UConn have any chance of staying relevant?
The answer to the above question is yes. But this is an article, so I won't explain quickly. It's my blog, damnit!
Yesterday, news broke that seven Catholic, non-football members of the Big East were exploring their options. Unlike in football, where it's every school for themselves, these schools are looking at making one, big move, which could include dissolving the league altogether.
Over the past two years, the Big East has lost Pitt, Syracuse, Rutgers, Notre Dame, Louisville, and West Virginia. But the league was already a watered down version of itself, which a decade ago featured Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College. Like Cincinnati for head coaches, the conference has become an audition and stepping stone for schools to move into major conferences.
The driving force of college realignment is money. In some situations, it's specifically adding schools in big markets to put their league's games in as many houses as possible, to make more money. The Big Ten added Rutgers and Maryland, from the ACC, to be able to put the Big Ten Network in New York City and Washington DC.
Until yesterday, basketball was the one sport where the Big East was still respectable. However, losing Georgetown, Marquette, and Villanova would be closing the casket and making funeral arrangements for the league, in all sports.
Football brings in the most money. Basketball is the slower, less attractive little brother that is still relevant enough to cause a stir, like the Moon slightly tugging on the Earth (sorry, I've been watching way too much of "The Universe" lately).
So where does that leave Cincinnati, UConn and South Florida? They are the only three remaining football schools from the remnants of the league, which will be adding SMU, Boise State, San Diego State, Houston, UCF, Tulane, East Carolina, and Temple as replacements.
USF is in the worst position of the three schools. While they are in a decent market in Tampa, Florida and Florida State still have a much larger and dominant following. Their football and basketball programs are both below average, and would certainly struggle more in any other major conference. The ACC is the weakest of the five major conferences in football. If you think they're going to sell Duke vs. USF to ESPN or any other network, you're brain damaged.
UConn has a decent football program, which has won shares of the Big East Championship over the past few years. However, in any other conference (except for potentially the ACC), the Huskies would be a bottom feeder team. But UConn is known for its historic and great basketball program. On the other hand, legendary coach Jim Calhoun recently retired, which has left the program on shaky ground, especially with coaches and players being hesitant to join a program in a crumbling league.
Cincinnati is in the best position of the three schools. They have won a share of the Big East Championship four of the past five years, including two outright championships in 2008 and 2009. Their football program has finished the season ranked in the AP Top 25 five of the last six years. While Nippert Stadium only holds about 35,000, the university recently announced plans to raise $70 million for renovations, improvements, and expansion. They also have played games at Paul Brown Stadium, the 67,000 capacity home of the Bengals. In addition, their basketball program is currently ranked 11 in the AP Top 25 (as of 12/13/12) and have been consistently appearing in the NCAA Tournament for decades. Plus, Cincinnati is a top 50 market and, in the right league, their games could be broadcast over the entire state of Ohio, the seventh largest state in the US. Having an enrollment of over 42,000 students and stealing Tommy Tuberville, a high profile coach from a major Big 12 program, can't hurt either.
In the end, Cincinnati and UConn will land in a major conference via a few different scenarios, regardless of the Catholic schools' decision:
1. The ACC will decide to expand to 16 teams and give both schools an invitation. Without any hesitation or speculation, they'll bolt faster than you can say "The Big East is dead." Geographically and athletically, they make sense to add. And as the ACC could potentially be seen as weak and vulnerable with its current 14 teams, Cincinnati and UConn would at least give them wiggle room should any schools leave. It would also prevent the possibility that...
2. The Big 12 invites Cincinnati to join, without UConn. The Huskies don't make sense geographically and wouldn't add much competition to their football program. However, adding the Bearcats would give their newest member, West Virginia, an old rival that is not too far away. Currently, the Big 12 has 10 schools and has declined expanding because 12 team leagues require a league championship game, where upsets are common, and that would make it tougher for Texas or Oklahoma to go undefeated and reach a National Championship Game. At 11 teams, the Big 12 would have a little more stability without needing a conference championship game. BYU has turned down several offers to join the league and Boise State's research and educational standards are a joke, giving Cincinnati an edge. However, a more likely scenario would be...
3. The Big 12 and/or SEC start picking off schools from the ACC. Rumors have been swirling around Florida State, Miami, Virginia Tech, and Clemson exploring their options. Should this happen, it will probably be two schools leaving at the same time, not all four. When Maryland bolted for the Big Ten in November, the ACC had serious talks with both Cincinnati and UConn before deciding on adding Louisville as their replacement. At this point, they are clearly the favorites to get invitations should any of their current members leave. Of course, there's always a chance that...
4. The Big Ten decides to add two more schools. While this is a long-shot of happening within the next year or so, Commissioner Jim Delaney's clear goal is to make his league bigger, richer, and more nationally marketable than everyone else. WHEN this happens, don't be surprised if UConn and Boston College are invited. Ohio State would be against adding any other Ohio schools to their conference, so Cincinnati would never get their wish of a real in-state rivalry with their big brother to the north. By adding UConn and BC, the Big Ten would expand their reach and network to the entire Northeast coast, a market that would stretch from Maine to Virginia and Cape Cod to the Great Plains. But this would not leave Cincinnati in the dark, as they would probably be invited to the ACC as a replacement for BC.
Unfortunately for USF, the Bulls will probably remain in what's left of the Big East, or move to a lower tier league like Conference USA or the Sun Belt Conference. There's always a remote chance that if an extra school is picked off from the ACC that they would get an invitation as a filler. But other schools, like UCF and Houston, could be seen as better options.
No matter what happens, as Cincinnati AD Whit Babcock said "This is going to be a wild ride." Buckle up.
